MIN beat NSH 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 3.2, MIN 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Marcus Johansson scored at 3:38 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Filip Gustavsson saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:44 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Jared Spurgeon, Vladimir Tarasenko | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 5:16 |  NSH | Matthew Wood from Michael McCarron, Tyson Jost | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 16:01 | MIN | Zeev BuiumPP from Brock Faber, Marcus Johansson | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 19:59 | NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Nick Blankenburg | 2–2 | 2% → 48% |
| OT 3:38 | MIN | Marcus Johansson from Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 15:42 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.05 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Matthew Wood R | 12:07 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.07 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 17:38 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 19:06 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 16:40 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 22:51 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 19:56 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 15:51 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 12:13 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 20:16 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:59 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 11:36 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ozzy Wiesblatt C | 11:43 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:53 | −0.24 | +0.12 | −0.62 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 17:06 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 24:54 | −0.50 | −0.10 | −0.38 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 14:55 | −0.52 | −0.02 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 16:26 | −0.75 | −0.02 | −0.68 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 61:12 | −0.28 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeev Buium D | 13:02 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.01 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.13 | +0.81 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 25:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.21 | +0.71 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Marcus Foligno L | 16:02 | +0.33 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 27:24 | 2 | +0.19 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 18:07 | +0.16 | +0.24 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 5:43 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:02 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 22:29 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 8:29 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 19:38 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 17:35 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:27 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 18:34 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| David Jiricek D | 11:56 | −0.32 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Jones C | 7:02 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:21 | −0.39 | −0.04 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:10 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.12 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 63:03 | +1.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.