BOS beat NYI 4–3 in a shootout. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Marat Khusnutdinov scored at 15:06 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 11% to 49%. Jeremy Swayman saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:11 |  NYI | Anthony Duclair from Casey Cizikas, Kyle MacLean | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 12:21 | BOS | Viktor Arvidsson from Hampus Lindholm, Casey Mittelstadt | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 13:06 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Mathew Barzal, Emil Heineman | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 17:29 | BOS | Pavel ZachaPP from Charlie McAvoy, Morgan Geekie | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 5:05 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Matthew Schaefer, Kyle Palmieri | 2–3 | 51% → 80% |
| P3 15:06 | BOS | Marat Khusnutdinov from Fraser Minten, David Pastrnak | 3–3 | 11% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 16:50 | 1 | +1.50 | −0.24 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.79 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 18:36 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.29 | +0.49 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 18:31 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.25 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 15:26 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 20:54 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.31 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 9:17 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 23:43 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.38 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 12:46 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 22:06 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 14:18 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 14:57 | −0.17 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Beecher C | 8:34 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 15:38 | −0.32 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 26:47 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:07 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 18:38 | −0.36 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 19:03 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Fraser Minten C | 16:28 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.23 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 65:00 | +1.91 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat C | 24:33 | 2 | +0.82 | +0.07 | +1.14 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.38 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 8:50 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.05 | +0.90 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 7:49 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Matthew Schaefer D | 22:31 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.55 | −0.72 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 20:53 | +0.03 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 22:56 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.46 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 8:57 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 17:58 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 21:50 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 18:15 | −0.11 | +0.27 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.33 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 15:24 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:05 | −0.12 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calum Ritchie C | 12:48 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 17:32 | −0.22 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 13:31 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.06 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 14:00 | −0.33 | +0.11 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 20:35 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.05 | −0.52 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 18:29 | −0.58 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 65:00 | −0.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.