UTA beat BUF 2–1 in overtime. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Clayton Keller scored at 0:47 of overtime, moving UTA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Alex Lyon saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 3:58 |  UTA | Nick Schmaltz from Clayton Keller, John Marino | 1–0 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 7:50 |  BUF | Noah Ostlund from Isak Rosen | 1–1 | 22% → 52% |
| OT 0:47 | UTA | Clayton Keller from Mikhail Sergachev, Karel Vejmelka | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:46 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.24 | +0.70 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 20:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.27 | +0.12 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| John Marino D | 21:09 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.25 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 20:40 | +0.20 | +0.32 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 24:53 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.21 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 14:01 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 13:30 | +0.07 | +0.19 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 19:01 | +0.04 | +0.15 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 16:40 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.25 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Simashev D | 16:49 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 12:42 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 16:49 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:25 | −0.12 | +0.18 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 13:53 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 10:17 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 15:37 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 11:44 | −0.19 | +0.21 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 16:24 | −0.58 | +0.23 | −0.83 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:41 | +0.85 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Ostlund C | 15:14 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Isak Rosen R | 16:00 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 19:23 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Geertsen L | 3:49 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Dunne C | 7:26 | −0.12 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 9:06 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 21:17 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 17:25 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 19:39 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 19:00 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:39 | −0.26 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 17:03 | −0.28 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 18:15 | −0.29 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 16:39 | −0.31 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 18:38 | −0.40 | −0.32 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 17:50 | −0.43 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 21:03 | −0.52 | −0.13 | −0.40 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 16:55 | −0.57 | −0.15 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 60:47 | +1.95 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.