VAN beat NSH 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (VAN 3.1, NSH 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Brock Boeser scored at 4:58 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Juuse Saros allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:47 |  NSH | Filip Forsberg from Brady Skjei, Luke Evangelista | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 14:45 |  VAN | Evander KanePP from Filip Hronek, Arshdeep Bains | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 12:57 | VAN | Jake DeBruskPP from Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson | 2–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P2 15:05 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Tom Willander, Elias Pettersson | 3–1 | 70% → 87% |
| P2 18:45 | NSH | Erik HaulaPP from Filip Forsberg, Luke Evangelista | 3–2 | 12% → 28% |
| P3 3:02 | VAN | Evander KanePP from Linus Karlsson, Marcus Pettersson | 4–2 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 11:52 | NSH | Michael Bunting from Spencer Stastney, Fedor Svechkov | 4–3 | 3% → 18% |
| P3 16:37 | NSH | Nick BlankenburgPP from Matthew Wood, Michael Bunting | 4–4 | 11% → 51% |
| OT 4:58 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Elias Pettersson | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Boeser R | 20:15 | 2 | 1 | +1.40 | +0.25 | +1.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Evander Kane L | 16:56 | 2 | +1.37 | −0.01 | +1.58 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 21:04 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.17 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 22:44 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Tom Willander D | 10:52 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson D | 11:43 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mackenzie MacEachern L | 10:49 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 15:44 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 15:02 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 13:52 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 23:59 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:04 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.43 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 10:43 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Max Sasson C | 9:40 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 22:21 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 25:07 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Arshdeep Bains L | 9:19 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 21:19 | −0.69 | +0.00 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 64:14 | −0.59 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Haula L | 20:46 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.05 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 13:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.06 | +0.62 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 21:03 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.21 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 20:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.21 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:49 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 19:25 | 2 | +0.17 | +0.21 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Wood R | 13:59 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 17:17 | +0.12 | +0.24 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 16:48 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:59 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:05 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 11:44 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 12:16 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 18:08 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 26:41 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ozzy Wiesblatt C | 9:33 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 12:54 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 19:18 | −0.29 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 64:49 | −1.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.