DET beat SJS 3–2 in a shootout. DET also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 1.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sam Dickinson scored at 16:55 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 10% to 51%. Alex Nedeljkovic saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 18:05 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Dylan Larkin | 1–0 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 0:49 | SJS | Jeff Skinner from Philipp Kurashev, Dmitry Orlov | 1–1 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 10:16 | DET | Moritz Seider from Simon Edvinsson, Alex DeBrincat | 2–1 | 48% → 80% |
| P3 16:55 | SJS | Sam Dickinson from Will Smith, Patrick Giles | 2–2 | 10% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James van Riemsdyk L | 9:52 | +0.94 | +0.12 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 25:00 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.16 | +0.72 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 23:39 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.30 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 20:06 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.03 | +0.42 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 16:50 | +0.23 | +0.25 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 17:10 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Kasper C | 14:32 | +0.12 | +0.38 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 14:42 | +0.11 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 14:11 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 11:03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Elmer Soderblom L | 10:34 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 21:59 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 17:29 | −0.13 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 17:12 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 19:46 | −0.25 | +0.14 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 16:27 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 16:29 | 1 | −0.65 | +0.28 | −0.57 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 24:07 | 1 | −0.83 | +0.13 | −0.56 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 64:52 | +1.17 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Dickinson D | 16:23 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.17 | +0.57 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 14:44 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.06 | +0.81 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 11:33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 16:48 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Giles R | 8:20 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 16:09 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 15:13 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 15:11 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 21:25 | −0.19 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 24:11 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.05 | −0.32 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 12:08 | −0.33 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 26:15 | −0.35 | −0.48 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Ethan Cardwell R | 15:05 | −0.36 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 21:54 | −0.39 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 18:58 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.37 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Smith C | 21:21 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.38 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 18:43 | −0.66 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 16:39 | 1 | −1.04 | +0.04 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 65:00 | +1.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.