NYI beat CBJ 3–2. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Simon Holmstrom scored at 19:22 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 51% to 96%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:53 |  NYI | Matthew SchaeferPP from Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P2 15:21 | CBJ | Miles Wood from Adam Fantilli, Boone Jenner | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 12:10 | CBJ | Denton Mateychuk from Kirill Marchenko, Sean Monahan | 2–1 | 49% → 83% |
| P3 18:53 | NYI | Matthew SchaeferPP unassisted | 2–2 | 6% → 50% |
| P3 19:22 | NYI | Simon Holmstrom from Anders Lee, Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 2–3 | 51% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Wood L | 12:01 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.08 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 13:01 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.03 | +0.63 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 10:45 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 17:44 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.11 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 17:18 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 16:32 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 10:40 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 18:23 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 9:08 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 16:43 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 27:06 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 12:06 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 24:20 | −0.42 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 15:53 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.26 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 19:14 | −0.43 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 17:18 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 16:33 | −0.55 | −0.07 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 23:43 | −0.76 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 59:22 | +0.93 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Schaefer D | 17:24 | 2 | +1.73 | +0.08 | +1.45 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 16:32 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.25 | +0.60 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:48 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.27 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:42 | +0.22 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 21:34 | +0.12 | +0.28 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 19:08 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 15:19 | +0.10 | +0.04 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:47 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.13 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 9:28 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 20:28 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.14 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Calum Ritchie C | 13:56 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 8:45 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 16:12 | −0.17 | +0.12 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 8:30 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 21:38 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 14:24 | −0.43 | +0.03 | −0.43 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 15:56 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.34 | −0.78 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 18:43 | −0.47 | +0.06 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 59:46 | +0.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.