NYR beat SEA 3–2 in overtime. NYR also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 1.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Will Cuylle scored at 2:42 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Igor Shesterkin allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:16 | NYR | Vladislav Gavrikov from Adam Fox, Jonny Brodzinski | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 12:49 |  SEA | Chandler StephensonPP from Vince Dunn, Eeli Tolvanen | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 13:50 | NYR | Noah Laba from Will Cuylle, Alexis Lafrenière | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 6:59 | SEA | Brandon Montour from Jaden Schwartz, Chandler Stephenson | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| OT 2:42 | NYR | Will Cuylle from J.T. Miller, Adam Fox | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 21:47 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.03 | +0.92 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Laba C | 13:50 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.03 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 16:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.21 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 |
| Adam Fox D | 25:04 | 2 | +0.51 | +0.59 | −0.14 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:46 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 12:01 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 22:40 | +0.08 | +0.30 | −0.33 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 12:45 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 11:27 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 23:21 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 12:06 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 19:58 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 20:13 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 13:41 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 22:59 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.47 | −0.68 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 12:34 | −0.14 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Edstrom C | 9:31 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 17:08 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 62:42 | −1.08 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Montour D | 23:17 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.13 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 24:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.37 | +0.87 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Berkly Catton C | 11:36 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 21:20 | +0.10 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 14:16 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 22:56 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Meyers C | 4:57 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 15:53 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 11:21 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 18:16 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:07 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 18:33 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 16:57 | −0.24 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 7:37 | −0.26 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 12:15 | −0.31 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 25:09 | −0.33 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 19:54 | −0.39 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 15:32 | −0.43 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 62:42 | −0.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.