MTL beat OTT 4–3 in overtime. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alex Newhook scored at 1:40 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Samuel Montembeault allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:05 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Nick Suzuki | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 9:25 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P2 11:53 |  OTT | Drake Batherson unassisted | 1–2 | 11% → 26% |
| P2 19:49 | OTT | Michael Amadio from Shane Pinto, Artem Zub | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 12:27 | OTT | Tim Stützle from Drake Batherson, Tyler Kleven | 3–2 | 49% → 83% |
| P3 17:37 | MTL | Ivan Demidov from Lane Hutson, Mike Matheson | 3–3 | 8% → 51% |
| OT 1:40 | MTL | Alex Newhook unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle C | 19:31 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.05 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 16:08 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.01 | +0.66 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 17:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.05 | +0.49 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nick Cousins C | 8:01 | +0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 11:29 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 22:45 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Kleven D | 11:48 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 16:17 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 26:08 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 12:10 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 13:51 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| David Perron L | 15:01 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 21:01 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 20:53 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 19:52 | −0.19 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 2:04 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 25:05 | −0.26 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 20:42 | −0.43 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 61:40 | −0.43 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Demidov R | 16:03 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.34 | +0.56 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 16:51 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.27 | +0.31 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 17:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.06 | +0.50 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:51 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.01 | +0.68 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 15:44 | +0.18 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 22:47 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.28 | −0.33 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 10:41 | +0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 25:02 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.15 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 12:01 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 15:31 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:06 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 15:28 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 14:32 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 19:53 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 10:14 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 15:03 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 12:00 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 21:18 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 61:40 | −1.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.