BUF beat WSH 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (WSH 3.1, BUF 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Sonny Milano scored at 19:17 of the second, moving WSH’s win probability from 23% to 48%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:07 | WSH | Dylan Strome from Ryan Leonard | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 2:15 | WSH | Aliaksei Protas from Connor McMichael, Tom Wilson | 2–0 | 62% → 75% |
| P1 2:30 |  BUF | Tage Thompson from Jason Zucker, Jordan Greenway | 2–1 | 25% → 38% |
| P1 10:02 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Josh Doan, Owen Power | 2–2 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 18:45 | BUF | Isak Rosen from Jack Quinn, Conor Timmins | 2–3 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 19:17 | WSH | Sonny Milano from Matt Roy, Martin Fehérváry | 3–3 | 23% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliaksei Protas L | 18:25 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.25 | +0.69 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 9:07 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.16 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 17:55 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 22:13 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.04 | +0.49 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.32 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 14:13 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 19:44 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.15 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 16:00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Sourdif C | 13:02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 9:27 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 16:41 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 28:05 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 13:39 | −0.24 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 17:27 | −0.30 | +0.44 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 27:21 | −0.39 | +0.11 | −0.51 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 15:32 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 16:48 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.49 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 19:15 | −0.79 | +0.02 | −0.35 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.49 | ||
| Ryan Leonard R | 12:14 | 1 | −0.93 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 64:52 | +0.33 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isak Rosen R | 14:44 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.07 | +0.57 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 18:54 | +0.53 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +1.01 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 17:47 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.30 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 19:54 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 13:28 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Josh Dunne C | 11:51 | +0.13 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 18:27 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 12:42 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 20:22 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:07 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:08 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jiri Kulich C | 11:19 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 15:32 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 16:23 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:23 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.51 | +0.40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.38 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 20:14 | 1 | −0.71 | −0.50 | +0.68 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.49 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 18:05 | −0.76 | −0.33 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 26:12 | −1.13 | −0.64 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 64:28 | +2.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.