SJS beat COL 3–2 in overtime. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Philipp Kurashev scored at 1:48 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Yaroslav Askarov saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:30 |  COL | Martin Necas from Cale Makar, Devon Toews | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 18:21 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Tyler Toffoli, Shakir Mukhamadullin | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 4:07 | SJS | Philipp Kurashev from Ty Dellandrea, John Klingberg | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 9:10 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Artturi Lehkonen, Valeri Nichushkin | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| OT 1:48 | SJS | Philipp Kurashev from Alexander Wennberg | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Necas C | 22:33 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.09 | +0.66 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:17 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.17 | +0.44 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 19:05 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 20:57 | +0.15 | +0.25 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 15:04 | +0.13 | +0.28 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 23:39 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 13:38 | +0.11 | +0.25 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 21:01 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Drury C | 15:20 | +0.07 | +0.22 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Ilya Solovyov D | 9:06 | +0.03 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Makar L | 6:07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 12:29 | −0.02 | +0.21 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 25:22 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 24:11 | −0.05 | +0.17 | −0.26 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 12:50 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 11:14 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 6:59 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 17:32 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.25 | −0.48 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 61:48 | −0.44 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Kurashev C | 20:20 | 2 | +1.12 | −0.23 | +1.35 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| William Eklund L | 20:45 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 10:56 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 10:55 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 7:18 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 14:11 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 22:44 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 9:50 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 20:53 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Giles R | 8:06 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 9:40 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 20:56 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 21:05 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.22 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 23:28 | −0.41 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Misa C | 10:11 | −0.47 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 23:14 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.23 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 19:31 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.05 | −0.52 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 27:21 | −0.60 | −0.35 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 61:48 | +1.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.