BOS beat CAR 2–1. BOS also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Casey Mittelstadt scored at 1:27 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 52% to 78%. Jeremy Swayman saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 1:27 |  BOS | Casey Mittelstadt from Charlie McAvoy, Pavel Zacha | 0–1 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 5:05 | BOS | Viktor Arvidsson from Casey Mittelstadt, Charlie McAvoy | 0–2 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 17:11 | CAR | Alexander NikishinPP from Mark Jankowski, Jordan Martinook | 1–2 | 1% → 8% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Nikishin D | 24:41 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.04 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 11:41 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:39 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 11:39 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Joel Nystrom D | 17:31 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charles Alexis Legault D | 14:19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:15 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 15:32 | −0.13 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 21:48 | −0.18 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 22:04 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bradly Nadeau L | 12:39 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:13 | −0.23 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 17:48 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:31 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 15:32 | −0.34 | −0.27 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:13 | −0.49 | −0.08 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 15:59 | −0.50 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 17:20 | −0.83 | −0.07 | −0.57 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 67:56 | +0.82 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 16:13 | 1 | +0.95 | −0.04 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.61 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 14:36 | +0.23 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:57 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:08 | +0.10 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 22:43 | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 15:18 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 24:09 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Beecher C | 12:12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 15:16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 16:45 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 12:20 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 20:33 | −0.11 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 15:32 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 15:07 | −0.24 | +0.17 | −0.38 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 14:39 | −0.24 | +0.17 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 15:22 | −0.31 | +0.18 | −0.44 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 16:37 | −0.40 | +0.06 | −0.48 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 69:21 | +1.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.