PIT beat MIN 4–1. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Bryan Rust scored at 6:29 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 48% to 77%. Tristan Jarry saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:16 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Marcus Johansson, Marco Rossi | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 2:18 | PIT | Ryan Shea from Tommy Novak, Kris Letang | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 6:29 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Ryan Shea, Kris Letang | 2–1 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 7:30 | PIT | Ben KindelPP from Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin | 3–1 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 17:18 | PIT | Anthony ManthaEN unassisted | 4–1 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Kindel C | 12:11 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.30 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Ryan Shea D | 21:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.16 | +0.80 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Bryan Rust R | 16:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.03 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Noel Acciari C | 16:20 | +0.11 | +0.18 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 24:17 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 15:15 | +0.07 | +0.19 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 12:15 | +0.05 | +0.23 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 22:31 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Pickering D | 13:23 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 21:57 | +0.01 | +0.21 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 15:45 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 14:40 | −0.06 | +0.20 | −0.44 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 14:47 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 12:42 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.25 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 13:35 | −0.19 | +0.11 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Filip Hallander C | 14:40 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 14:01 | −0.34 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 15:32 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.31 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 60:00 | +1.15 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 21:38 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.15 | +0.43 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 18:53 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 21:59 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 18:14 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 18:48 | −0.05 | −0.19 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 14:04 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:50 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 15:39 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 10:59 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 18:29 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 13:02 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 14:14 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Jiricek D | 13:31 | −0.29 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 22:41 | −0.33 | −0.29 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 17:19 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 19:27 | −0.39 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 10:51 | −0.39 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 19:33 | −0.40 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 69:44 | −0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.