CAR beat NYI 6–2. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.6 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Bradly Nadeau scored at 2:33 of the first, moving CAR’s win probability from 53% to 69%. David Rittich allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:33 | CAR | Bradly Nadeau unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:21 | CAR | Mike ReillySH unassisted | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 10:21 | CAR | Jordan Martinook from Jordan Staal, Andrei Svechnikov | 0–3 | 83% → 91% |
| P1 13:20 | NYI | Matthew SchaeferPP from Kyle Palmieri, Jonathan Drouin | 1–3 | 9% → 16% |
| P3 1:51 | CAR | Jackson Blake from Taylor Hall, Brandon Bussi | 1–4 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 10:48 | NYI | Simon Holmstrom from Tony DeAngelo | 2–4 | 0% → 3% |
| P3 10:59 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Alexander Nikishin, Logan Stankoven | 2–5 | 97% → 100% |
| P3 19:49 | CAR | Logan Stankoven from Nikolaj Ehlers | 2–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Schaefer D | 18:38 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.02 | +0.61 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 16:56 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.05 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 15:52 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 19:40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 15:51 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 18:53 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 15:17 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 14:55 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 16:59 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 10:32 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 11:04 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:55 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 19:19 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 19:02 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:28 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 17:45 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 18:57 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 18:25 | −0.67 | +0.05 | −0.71 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 60:00 | −1.90 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradly Nadeau L | 11:45 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.05 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 19:56 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.03 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.10 | +0.62 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:50 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.02 | +0.45 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 14:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.50 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Jackson Blake R | 12:12 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.01 | +0.54 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 21:56 | +0.04 | +0.16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:59 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 16:44 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 20:28 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charles Alexis Legault D | 15:40 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Nystrom D | 18:23 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 12:35 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 14:58 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 14:43 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 17:49 | −0.28 | +0.08 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 22:02 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:06 | −0.66 | +0.11 | −0.70 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 60:00 | +0.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.