OTT beat CGY 4–3 in a shootout. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jake Sanderson scored at 17:11 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 9% to 51%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:51 |  CGY | Yegor SharangovichPP from Joel Farabee, MacKenzie Weegar | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 7:37 | OTT | Lars EllerSH from Shane Pinto, Thomas Chabot | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 15:53 | CGY | Matt CoronatoPP from Morgan Frost, Rasmus Andersson | 2–1 | 48% → 65% |
| P3 2:36 | OTT | Artem Zub from Lars Eller, Drake Batherson | 2–2 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 8:16 | CGY | Nazem Kadri from Jonathan Huberdeau | 3–2 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 17:11 | OTT | Jake Sanderson from Tim Stützle, Jordan Spence | 3–3 | 9% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 17:25 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.08 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 21:49 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.16 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 17:59 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.33 | +0.44 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brayden Pachal D | 13:16 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 19:58 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 11:43 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 12:36 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 27:37 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 21:03 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Samuel Honzek L | 11:10 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 17:37 | −0.27 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 20:08 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Adam Klapka R | 8:06 | −0.33 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 17:03 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.11 | |
| Justin Kirkland C | 9:02 | −0.36 | +0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 21:41 | −0.38 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 28:41 | 1 | −0.60 | −0.41 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:44 | −0.91 | −0.30 | −0.55 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Cooley G | 83:49 | +0.30 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson R | 22:23 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.43 | −0.27 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.66 | |
| Artem Zub D | 20:09 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.07 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 31:06 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.36 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 12:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 |
| Thomas Chabot D | 25:54 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 27:24 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.48 | −1.01 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.41 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 10:56 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 13:38 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 18:25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 2:17 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 15:12 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 13:08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 11:53 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 19:10 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 17:52 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 20:49 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.20 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 15:15 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 19:27 | −0.58 | +0.30 | −0.87 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 65:00 | +0.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.