BOS beat BUF 4–3 in overtime. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 4.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Marat Khusnutdinov scored at 2:07 of overtime, moving BOS’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Joonas Korpisalo saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:07 |  BOS | Morgan GeekiePP from David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 15:07 | BOS | David Pastrnak unassisted | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 16:01 | BUF | Rasmus DahlinPP from Zach Benson, Tage Thompson | 1–2 | 10% → 24% |
| P2 19:39 | BOS | Mark Kastelic from Tanner Jeannot, Sean Kuraly | 1–3 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 7:00 | BUF | Josh Doan from Alex Tuch, Owen Power | 2–3 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 14:25 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Rasmus Dahlin | 3–3 | 12% → 50% |
| OT 2:07 | BOS | Marat Khusnutdinov from Fraser Minten | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.24 | +0.62 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Tuch R | 19:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.21 | +0.40 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Josh Doan R | 16:38 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.26 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 14:44 | +0.33 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 11:33 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 19:50 | +0.07 | +0.17 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 16:18 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.16 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 14:36 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 23:49 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 18:02 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Dunne C | 10:21 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 15:56 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jiri Kulich C | 18:05 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 12:12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 14:50 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:22 | −0.38 | +0.10 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:28 | −0.74 | +0.32 | −1.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 19:51 | 1 | −0.95 | +0.01 | −0.96 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 71:16 | −1.60 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Kastelic C | 12:37 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.20 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 18:32 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.06 | +0.56 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 15:20 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.02 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 20:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.11 | +0.57 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Fraser Minten C | 15:15 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 11:25 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 13:15 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 15:44 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 14:04 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 26:31 | −0.11 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 12:27 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 16:51 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 22:54 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 20:44 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 14:29 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 17:14 | −0.31 | −0.22 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 15:21 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 17:22 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.39 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 62:07 | +1.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.