LAK beat SJS 4–3. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 1.3 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brandt Clarke scored at 13:20 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 49% to 84%. Yaroslav Askarov allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:54 |  LAK | Corey Perry from Brandt Clarke, Alex Laferriere | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 3:21 | LAK | Jeff Malott from Corey Perry, Joel Edmundson | 2–0 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 6:43 | LAK | Drew Doughty from Brian Dumoulin, Alex Turcotte | 3–0 | 83% → 94% |
| P2 15:33 | SJS | Will Smith from Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli | 3–1 | 4% → 13% |
| P2 17:16 | SJS | Philipp Kurashev from Alexander Wennberg, William Eklund | 3–2 | 12% → 29% |
| P3 4:48 | SJS | Alexander Wennberg from Philipp Kurashev, Jeff Skinner | 3–3 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 13:20 | LAK | Brandt Clarke from Adrian Kempe, Joel Edmundson | 4–3 | 49% → 84% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandt Clarke D | 13:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.10 | +0.88 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Corey Perry R | 12:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.09 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Drew Doughty D | 20:37 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.17 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Malott L | 7:17 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.01 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 15:25 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 10:59 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 20:52 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 10:41 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 18:37 | −0.19 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 13:24 | −0.21 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 14:59 | −0.23 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 20:01 | 2 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 20:48 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 14:55 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 19:30 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 20:25 | −0.40 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 15:04 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.48 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 21:44 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.50 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 60:00 | +1.62 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Wennberg C | 22:56 | 1 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.46 | +0.67 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Will Smith C | 18:45 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.35 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 22:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.20 | +0.49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| William Eklund L | 24:46 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 11:51 | +0.28 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:12 | +0.24 | +0.25 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 11:39 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.27 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 9:12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 12:50 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 25:33 | −0.03 | +0.26 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 14:00 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 12:19 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:49 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.34 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:05 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 17:33 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 19:52 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.28 | −0.52 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 20:10 | −0.26 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Misa C | 10:10 | −1.00 | +0.31 | −1.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 57:28 | −2.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.