MTL beat SEA 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 1.7, SEA 2.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Cole Caufield scored at 0:44 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Joey Daccord allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:25 |  MTL | Cole Caufield from Nick Suzuki, Noah Dobson | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 17:28 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki | 2–0 | 66% → 79% |
| P3 5:55 | MTL | Alex NewhookPP from Kirby Dach, Noah Dobson | 3–0 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 8:57 |  SEA | Brandon MontourPP from Berkly Catton, Mason Marchment | 3–1 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 15:17 | SEA | Shane Wright from Brandon Montour, Eeli Tolvanen | 3–2 | 1% → 13% |
| P3 18:17 | SEA | Brandon MontourPP from Vince Dunn, Jaden Schwartz | 3–3 | 8% → 50% |
| OT 0:44 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 17:21 | 2 | 1 | +1.34 | +0.21 | +1.32 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 16:59 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.10 | +0.54 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 13:38 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.07 | +0.88 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 22:20 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 11:30 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 27:05 | +0.05 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 11:29 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 19:34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 22:07 | 2 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 12:00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 18:46 | 3 | −0.01 | +0.25 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 10:20 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 17:27 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 14:22 | −0.09 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 14:02 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 13:28 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 15:28 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 15:16 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 60:44 | −1.11 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Montour D | 25:17 | 2 | 1 | +1.58 | +0.04 | +1.55 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Shane Wright C | 16:41 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.79 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Berkly Catton C | 16:13 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 14:34 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jani Nyman R | 12:11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 13:51 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 13:09 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 12:07 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 18:17 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 15:31 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Meyers C | 9:02 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 12:20 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:55 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 21:38 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 17:24 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 23:16 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 21:38 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 15:09 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.10 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 72:28 | −2.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.