EDM beat UTA 6–3. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Leon Draisaitl scored at 13:33 of the second, moving EDM’s win probability from 30% to 53%. Karel Vejmelka allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:25 |  UTA | Logan Cooley from Dylan Guenther | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 17:45 | UTA | JJ Peterka unassisted | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 0:22 | EDM | Mattias Ekholm from Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P2 3:13 | EDM | Isaac Howard from Adam Henrique | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 8:19 | UTA | Barrett Hayton from Nick Schmaltz, Mikhail Sergachev | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 13:33 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Jake Walman, Evan Bouchard | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 14:10 | EDM | Ty Emberson from Adam Henrique, Mattias Ekholm | 3–4 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 17:56 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jake Walman | 3–5 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 17:34 | EDM | Connor McDavidEN from Evan Bouchard | 3–6 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Cooley C | 18:06 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.04 | +0.84 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 16:54 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.05 | +0.76 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 17:55 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.05 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 26:19 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 13:04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 20:06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 12:39 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:08 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 14:08 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 12:45 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Dmitri Simashev D | 20:09 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 8:49 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Marino D | 19:46 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 17:44 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 20:30 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 13:55 | −0.25 | +0.12 | −0.34 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:08 | −0.31 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 23:04 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.02 | −0.54 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 68:23 | −2.67 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Emberson D | 14:58 | 1 | +0.99 | −0.03 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 18:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.00 | +0.85 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Connor McDavid C | 22:37 | 2 | +0.85 | +0.06 | +0.71 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Isaac Howard L | 9:17 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.01 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 20:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.02 | +0.48 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Adam Henrique C | 13:55 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 16:02 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 16:08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 12:01 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 19:43 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 12:47 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 16:49 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 18:45 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 16:26 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 18:53 | 3 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:08 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 18:20 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| David Tomasek R | 10:52 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 59:59 | −0.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.