COL beat NJD 8–4. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Martin Necas scored on the power play at 1:24 of the first, moving COL’s win probability from 54% to 69%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 3.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:24 |  COL | Martin NecasPP from Cale Makar, Valeri Nichushkin | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 3:49 | COL | Zakhar Bardakov from Parker Kelly, Gavin Brindley | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P2 2:31 | COL | Victor Olofsson from Jack Ahcan, Gabriel Landeskog | 0–3 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 7:11 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Cale Makar, Victor Olofsson | 0–4 | 97% → 99% |
| P2 8:39 | COL | Parker Kelly from Ross Colton, Brent Burns | 0–5 | 99% → 99% |
| P2 10:08 |  NJD | Stefan Noesen from Paul Cotter | 1–5 | 1% → 1% |
| P2 11:48 | NJD | Dougie Hamilton from Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes | 2–5 | 1% → 3% |
| P2 13:42 | NJD | Dawson Mercer from Nico Hischier, Timo Meier | 3–5 | 3% → 10% |
| P2 14:12 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Jesper Bratt | 4–5 | 10% → 25% |
| P2 15:24 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Cale Makar, Victor Olofsson | 4–6 | 76% → 90% |
| P3 3:10 | COL | Victor OlofssonPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar | 4–7 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 17:38 | COL | Victor Olofsson from Jack Drury | 4–8 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes C | 17:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.08 | +0.71 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Dawson Mercer C | 15:24 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.73 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 19:37 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.02 | +0.72 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 15:00 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.08 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Nemec D | 19:09 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 12:29 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 13:40 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 19:54 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juho Lammikko C | 11:08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 16:26 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 11:13 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seamus Casey D | 17:54 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 20:55 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.11 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 19:12 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Arseny Gritsyuk R | 15:35 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 14:41 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.13 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 13:37 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 19:15 | 1 | −0.67 | +0.09 | −0.71 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 69:42 | −3.66 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Olofsson R | 14:31 | 3 | 2 | +1.98 | +0.00 | +1.99 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 19:56 | 2 | 1 | +1.56 | −0.01 | +1.27 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 9:53 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.06 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Martin Necas C | 19:53 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.77 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 13:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.13 | +0.51 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 20:00 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Ahcan D | 13:19 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 18:33 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 17:32 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 16:38 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 12:50 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 23:29 | −0.14 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 13:23 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 16:47 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:22 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gavin Brindley C | 11:16 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Drury C | 14:59 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Cale Makar D | 25:13 | 4 | −0.39 | −0.13 | −0.33 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 69:29 | −0.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.