ANA beat FLA 3–2 in a shootout. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 4.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sam Reinhart scored on the power play at 16:54 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 11% to 51%. Lukas Dostal saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 9:59 |  ANA | Leo CarlssonSH from Troy Terry, Drew Helleson | 1–0 | 46% → 68% |
| P2 12:27 | ANA | Cutter GauthierPP from Jackson LaCombe, Leo Carlsson | 2–0 | 75% → 86% |
| P3 11:12 | FLA | Anton Lundell from Mackie Samoskevich, Eetu Luostarinen | 2–1 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 16:54 | FLA | Sam ReinhartPP from Seth Jones, Carter Verhaeghe | 2–2 | 11% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish C | 22:57 | +0.65 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.01 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 20:55 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.79 | |
| Drew Helleson D | 18:59 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 18:28 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 19:46 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 23:23 | −0.03 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 22:03 | 1 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.35 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.32 |
| Sam Colangelo R | 10:47 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 15:18 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:54 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 9:18 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 13:35 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 12:49 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 18:06 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 12:27 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:36 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 30:28 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 19:57 | −0.67 | −0.29 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 84:02 | +2.70 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Lundell C | 22:27 | 1 | +1.67 | +0.33 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.79 | |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 18:59 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.38 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 24:34 | +0.17 | +0.21 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 17:30 | +0.07 | +0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 8:13 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 19:04 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.18 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Uvis Balinskis D | 12:17 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 17:32 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 11:12 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 8:45 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:53 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 29:46 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.28 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 12:59 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 11:27 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 10:34 | −0.24 | +0.14 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 19:52 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 26:59 | 1 | −0.56 | +0.41 | −0.63 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 22:29 | −0.57 | +0.32 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 77:06 | −1.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.