CBJ beat BUF 4–3 in overtime. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Miles Wood scored at 2:53 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:09 | CBJ | Egor Chinakhov unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 11:39 | BUF | Josh Doan from Alex Tuch, Conor Timmins | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 14:12 | BUF | Ryan McLeod from Bowen Byram, Alex Tuch | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 19:44 | CBJ | Zach WerenskiPP from Kirill Marchenko, Sean Monahan | 2–2 | 24% → 48% |
| P3 2:40 | BUF | Josh Dunne from Beck Malenstyn, Mattias Samuelsson | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 13:55 | CBJ | Miles Wood from Egor Chinakhov, Dante Fabbro | 3–3 | 13% → 49% |
| OT 2:53 | CBJ | Miles Wood from Zach Werenski, Isac Lundeström | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Wood L | 13:24 | 2 | +1.43 | +0.08 | +1.37 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 28:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.03 | +0.68 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 12:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.01 | +0.63 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 22:55 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 26:13 | +0.17 | +0.28 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 14:54 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 13:48 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 11:28 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 17:31 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 16:05 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 14:44 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:33 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 20:07 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 15:38 | −0.21 | +0.08 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 15:24 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 16:56 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.44 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 13:59 | −0.43 | +0.19 | −0.43 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 15:52 | 1 | −0.69 | +0.22 | −0.92 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 62:53 | +0.47 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Dunne C | 12:45 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.11 | +0.61 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.39 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 16:17 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.15 | +0.91 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 13:50 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.01 | +0.31 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 13:48 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 19:48 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 16:20 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 17:58 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 12:47 | −0.07 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 16:03 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 18:42 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 16:13 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Noah Ostlund C | 12:16 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 19:13 | −0.25 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 19:19 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 21:07 | −0.33 | −0.18 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:01 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jiri Kulich C | 20:42 | −0.64 | −0.34 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 19:26 | −1.02 | −0.42 | −0.55 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 62:53 | +0.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.