TOR beat CGY 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (CGY 2.9, TOR 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Max Domi scored at 17:56 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 50% to 94%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:33 |  CGY | Morgan Frost from Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 3:13 | TOR | Max Domi from Steven Lorentz, Matias Maccelli | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 17:55 | CGY | Joel Farabee from Justin Kirkland, Rasmus Andersson | 2–1 | 47% → 72% |
| P2 19:25 | TOR | Matthew Knies from William Nylander | 2–2 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 3:45 | TOR | Matthew KniesPP unassisted | 2–3 | 53% → 79% |
| P3 14:49 | CGY | Samuel Honzek from Mikael Backlund | 3–3 | 12% → 49% |
| P3 17:56 | TOR | Max Domi from Matthew Knies, John Tavares | 3–4 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Frost C | 21:37 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.15 | +0.56 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Samuel Honzek L | 11:41 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.05 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 16:04 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.02 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jake Bean D | 18:48 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Kirkland C | 9:48 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 20:50 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 25:48 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zayne Parekh D | 15:54 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 11:21 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 11:39 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 21:15 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.40 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 23:33 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.10 | −0.28 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Ryan Lomberg L | 9:18 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 22:58 | −0.31 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 12:18 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:27 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Zary C | 11:43 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 16:34 | −0.73 | −0.29 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 58:34 | −0.49 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Domi C | 12:25 | 2 | +1.61 | −0.09 | +1.52 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Matthew Knies L | 21:02 | 2 | 1 | +1.24 | +0.45 | +1.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Morgan Rielly D | 19:35 | +0.23 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 18:49 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 11:47 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 23:05 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Easton Cowan R | 11:47 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:09 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 14:05 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 15:22 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 24:01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 15:18 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 11:45 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 18:13 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.38 | −0.70 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 21:03 | −0.30 | +0.23 | −0.57 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 14:22 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 17:19 | −0.50 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 15:15 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.15 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 60:00 | +0.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.