PIT beat STL 6–3. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Parker Wotherspoon scored on the power play at 6:37 of the second, moving PIT’s win probability from 53% to 73%. Joel Hofer allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:39 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Erik Karlsson, Filip Hallander | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 0:55 | PIT | Anthony Mantha from Evgeni Malkin, Justin Brazeau | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 4:15 | STL | Nick Bjugstad from Nathan Walker, Tyler Tucker | 1–2 | 18% → 31% |
| P1 15:43 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Brayden Schenn, Dylan Holloway | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 6:37 | PIT | Parker WotherspoonPP from Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 0:42 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Erik Karlsson, Sidney Crosby | 2–4 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 4:35 | STL | Mathieu Joseph from Nick Bjugstad | 3–4 | 7% → 21% |
| P3 16:39 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Bryan Rust | 3–5 | 91% → 99% |
| P3 16:59 | PIT | Evgeni MalkinEN from Justin Brazeau | 3–6 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bjugstad C | 13:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.06 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 12:27 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.05 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 18:49 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.04 | +0.63 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Mailloux D | 13:14 | +0.28 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 15:14 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:49 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.15 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 18:13 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 14:35 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 16:27 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 21:45 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 17:41 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 12:41 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 12:14 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.08 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 22:10 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 22:04 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 10:34 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 20:21 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:20 | −0.52 | −0.22 | −0.31 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 69:50 | −2.23 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Rust R | 18:59 | 2 | 1 | +1.01 | −0.14 | +1.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 23:26 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.07 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 14:08 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.10 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:02 | 1 | 2 | +0.52 | +0.01 | +0.50 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 14:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Connor Dewar C | 13:56 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 14:11 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 15:16 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 20:27 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 23:52 | 3 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 21:16 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 11:21 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 12:05 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 14:29 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hallander C | 16:59 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Harrison Brunicke D | 15:43 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 12:49 | 2 | −0.41 | +0.09 | −0.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 10:48 | −0.50 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.39 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 68:53 | −0.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.