VAN beat EDM 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (EDM 2.7, VAN 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kiefer Sherwood scored at 1:43 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Calvin Pickard allowed 1.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:42 |  VAN | Brock Boeser from Evander Kane, Marcus Pettersson | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 2:22 | VAN | Elias PetterssonPP from Filip Hronek, Conor Garland | 0–2 | 73% → 86% |
| P2 16:32 |  EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Evan Bouchard, Jack Roslovic | 1–2 | 9% → 24% |
| P2 19:19 | VAN | Kiefer Sherwood from Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson | 1–3 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 1:21 | EDM | Jack Roslovic from Vasily Podkolzin | 2–3 | 8% → 22% |
| P3 14:57 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 3–3 | 13% → 49% |
| OT 1:43 | VAN | Kiefer Sherwood from Brock Boeser, Conor Garland | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 20:55 | 2 | +1.50 | +0.05 | +1.39 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 15:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.72 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Evan Bouchard D | 24:59 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.25 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 18:53 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 9:42 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Tomasek R | 9:47 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 19:37 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 14:04 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 13:07 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 15:37 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 15:13 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 19:02 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 23:32 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaac Howard L | 9:11 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 17:07 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:51 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.04 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 23:03 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.10 | −0.43 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.10 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 15:11 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 61:43 | −1.01 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 16:40 | 2 | +1.60 | +0.12 | +1.30 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 20:40 | 1 | 2 | +0.75 | +0.13 | +0.62 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:22 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.12 | +0.73 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 15:55 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 9:14 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 15:39 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Arshdeep Bains L | 8:52 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 28:19 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson D | 20:22 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 22:11 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 9:58 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 17:34 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Mancini D | 8:18 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 11:21 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 27:21 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Reichel L | 16:33 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 17:49 | −0.45 | −0.10 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 22:05 | 2 | −0.46 | −0.05 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 61:43 | −0.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.