SJS beat MIN 6–5 in overtime. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Macklin Celebrini scored at 3:47 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jesper Wallstedt allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:28 |  SJS | William EklundPP from Macklin Celebrini, Dmitry Orlov | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:35 | SJS | Michael Misa from Timothy Liljegren | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 17:02 |  MIN | Marcus JohanssonPP from Marco Rossi, Brock Faber | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P1 17:34 | MIN | Marco Rossi from Kirill Kaprizov | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 11:15 | SJS | William Eklund from Philipp Kurashev | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 11:34 | SJS | Ryan Reaves from Barclay Goodrow, Ty Dellandrea | 4–2 | 69% → 85% |
| P3 4:28 | MIN | Ryan HartmanPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber | 4–3 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 7:52 | SJS | Tyler ToffoliPP from Macklin Celebrini, William Eklund | 5–3 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 8:28 | MIN | Zeev Buium from Ryan Hartman, Yakov Trenin | 5–4 | 5% → 22% |
| P3 17:42 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek from Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber | 5–5 | 8% → 50% |
| OT 3:47 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini unassisted | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Eklund L | 25:29 | 2 | 1 | +1.09 | −0.17 | +1.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Ryan Reaves R | 5:02 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.04 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Misa C | 11:02 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.06 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:50 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.11 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 21:47 | 1 | 2 | +0.48 | −0.12 | +0.49 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| Adam Gaudette R | 6:39 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 12:52 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 17:44 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 20:26 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 18:23 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 8:57 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 23:27 | −0.12 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:55 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 9:00 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Vincent Iorio D | 18:00 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 17:56 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 23:19 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 27:28 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.36 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 63:47 | −1.43 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Johansson L | 22:01 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.20 | +0.65 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 15:55 | 1 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.23 | +0.64 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 |
| Zeev Buium D | 16:45 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.04 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:09 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.18 | +0.42 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 22:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.08 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 12:20 | +0.24 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 19:53 | +0.16 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 17:15 | +0.11 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 28:16 | 3 | +0.05 | +0.23 | −0.22 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 27:59 | −0.07 | +0.10 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Jones C | 5:35 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:04 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danila Yurov R | 7:24 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Jiricek D | 8:52 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 26:53 | −0.15 | +0.21 | −0.37 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 7:17 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 28:02 | 3 | −0.30 | +0.20 | −0.53 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 19:11 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 73:14 | −3.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.