NJD beat COL 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (COL 2.7, NJD 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jack Hughes scored at 1:53 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Trent Miner allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:09 | NJD | Arseny Gritsyuk from Timo Meier | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 9:48 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Simon Nemec, Brenden Dillon | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 12:55 | COL | Valeri Nichushkin from Cale Makar, Victor Olofsson | 1–2 | 16% → 30% |
| P1 17:03 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Artturi Lehkonen, Devon Toews | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 12:51 | NJD | Connor Brown from Simon Nemec | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 13:55 | COL | Brock Nelson from Ross Colton, Sam Malinski | 3–3 | 13% → 49% |
| OT 1:53 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Simon Nemec | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 17:47 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.06 | +0.39 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 21:39 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.26 | +0.57 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 17:40 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.17 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Martin Necas C | 23:55 | +0.06 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 18:33 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 15:29 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Ahcan D | 11:58 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 13:54 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 19:34 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 27:38 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.28 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 9:08 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gavin Brindley C | 8:40 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 16:22 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.20 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 15:10 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 9:30 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 24:36 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 14:39 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 19:41 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Trent Miner G | 61:53 | −1.94 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes C | 22:43 | 2 | +1.97 | +0.30 | +1.64 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Arseny Gritsyuk R | 16:09 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.02 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 18:01 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.05 | +0.39 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 20:33 | +0.21 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 23:35 | 3 | +0.15 | +0.21 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 19:31 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 17:17 | +0.06 | +0.15 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 22:10 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 25:06 | +0.05 | +0.16 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 8:42 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Halonen L | 8:51 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 14:22 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 16:30 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 6:07 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 6:59 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 18:49 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 24:43 | −0.31 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 14:17 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.38 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 61:53 | −0.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.