DAL beat CAR 3–2. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 3.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Miro Heiskanen scored on the power play at 11:18 of the third, moving DAL’s win probability from 53% to 84%. Brandon Bussi saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:14 | CAR | Jackson Blake unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 19:49 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from Nikolaj Ehlers | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 1:04 |  DAL | Miro Heiskanen from Esa Lindell | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 5:41 | DAL | Sam SteelPP from Thomas Harley, Mikko Rantanen | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P3 11:18 | DAL | Miro HeiskanenPP from Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen | 2–3 | 53% → 84% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Blake R | 16:44 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.31 | +0.37 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 22:08 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.48 | +0.58 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Charles Alexis Legault D | 9:58 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:25 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 11:16 | −0.04 | +0.17 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:15 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 14:44 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:12 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 25:46 | −0.13 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 15:00 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bradly Nadeau L | 12:39 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 16:24 | −0.22 | +0.12 | −0.54 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 10:42 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 21:16 | −0.28 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Nystrom D | 17:57 | −0.33 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 22:29 | −0.41 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 14:10 | −0.53 | +0.11 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.39 | −0.01 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:26 | −0.86 | −0.44 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 58:08 | +2.03 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miro Heiskanen D | 24:19 | 2 | +1.71 | +0.19 | +1.52 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Steel C | 18:56 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.03 | +0.60 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 25:16 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.37 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 20:50 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.31 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 20:23 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 21:03 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.28 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 11:28 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 19:49 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.50 | −0.74 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Lian Bichsel D | 15:29 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 13:37 | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 14:35 | −0.13 | +0.30 | −0.61 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 11:39 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 12:39 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 16:28 | −0.23 | +0.12 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 8:56 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 18:33 | −0.26 | +0.46 | −0.77 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 7:46 | −0.37 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 15:20 | −0.41 | +0.17 | −0.77 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 60:00 | +0.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.