NSH beat LAK 5–4 in a shootout. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan O'Reilly scored at 14:44 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 14% to 51%. Darcy Kuemper allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:27 |  LAK | Adrian Kempe from Brandt Clarke, Andrei Kuzmenko | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:00 | NSH | Ryan O'Reilly from Spencer Stastney | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 0:36 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Matthew Wood, Ryan O'Reilly | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 1:35 | LAK | Joel Armia from Alex Turcotte | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 5:24 | LAK | Corey Perry from Joel Armia | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 7:12 | NSH | Cole Smith unassisted | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 9:50 | LAK | Trevor Moore from Brandt Clarke, Joel Edmundson | 4–3 | 48% → 80% |
| P3 14:44 | NSH | Ryan O'Reilly from Filip Forsberg, Nicolas Hague | 4–4 | 14% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Moore L | 16:00 | 1 | +1.45 | −0.01 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 18:50 | 1 | +1.22 | +0.06 | +0.51 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.66 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 17:23 | +0.75 | +0.00 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 12:49 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.11 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Joel Armia R | 12:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.66 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.49 |
| Cody Ceci D | 21:23 | +0.15 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 15:49 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Turcotte C | 9:42 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 21:25 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 17:27 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 24:20 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 21:23 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 16:49 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 14:15 | −0.33 | +0.11 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 21:29 | −0.47 | +0.03 | −0.47 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 21:00 | −0.51 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.49 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 18:27 | −0.60 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 18:26 | 1 | −0.79 | +0.19 | −0.52 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 65:00 | −2.07 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 23:29 | 2 | 1 | +2.12 | +0.24 | +1.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.66 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 20:40 | 1 | 1 | +1.67 | +0.20 | +0.65 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 |
| Erik Haula L | 17:16 | +0.81 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +1.01 | ||
| Ozzy Wiesblatt C | 13:45 | +0.75 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 16:49 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.02 | +0.53 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 18:18 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 23:42 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 21:11 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 9:55 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 20:37 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 17:36 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Wilsby D | 22:26 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 17:58 | −0.27 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:27 | −0.43 | +0.07 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.16 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 13:14 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 12:56 | −0.63 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 21:25 | −0.65 | −0.03 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 12:56 | −0.77 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 65:00 | +0.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.