PHI beat NYI 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 3.2, PHI 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Trevor Zegras scored on the power play at 7:32 of the third, moving PHI’s win probability from 23% to 52%. Ilya Sorokin allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:51 | NYI | Simon HolmstromSH from Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 1–0 | 46% → 63% |
| P2 6:15 | NYI | Anthony Duclair from Marshall Warren, Anders Lee | 2–0 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 10:29 |  PHI | Christian Dvorak from Trevor Zegras, Matvei Michkov | 2–1 | 16% → 31% |
| P3 1:54 | PHI | Trevor Zegras from Christian Dvorak, Jamie Drysdale | 2–2 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 4:21 | NYI | Maxim Tsyplakov from Marshall Warren, Tony DeAngelo | 3–2 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 7:32 | PHI | Trevor ZegrasPP from Bobby Brink, Cam York | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:24 | 1 | +1.88 | +0.08 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.79 | |
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 10:01 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.03 | +0.71 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 16:17 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.01 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 22:53 | +0.14 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 12:41 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Marshall Warren D | 11:20 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 23:29 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 9:52 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 24:00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.21 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 20:43 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:09 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 19:29 | −0.25 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 19:38 | −0.32 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 20:22 | −0.33 | +0.19 | −0.53 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 17:09 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Schaefer D | 29:35 | −0.41 | −0.09 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 8:15 | −0.46 | −0.03 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 25:12 | −0.55 | +0.02 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 65:00 | −1.31 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Zegras C | 19:03 | 2 | 1 | +2.43 | +0.09 | +1.51 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.79 |
| Matvei Michkov R | 15:29 | 1 | +1.08 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.07 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.00 |
| Nick Seeler D | 17:46 | +0.16 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 23:27 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.27 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 6:53 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikita Grebenkin R | 8:23 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Ginning D | 12:07 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 23:42 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 13:45 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rodrigo Abols C | 6:47 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 18:40 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.20 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.32 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 19:16 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.41 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 28:08 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.12 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 28:00 | −0.35 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 21:36 | −0.39 | −0.21 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 19:57 | −0.49 | −0.09 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 18:43 | −0.52 | −0.21 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 65:00 | +0.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.