EDM beat MTL 6–5. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Vasily Podkolzin scored at 18:51 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 50% to 96%. Samuel Montembeault allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:28 |  MTL | Alex Newhook from Lane Hutson, Oliver Kapanen | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:12 | EDM | David Tomasek from Vasily Podkolzin, Noah Philp | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 10:37 | EDM | Adam Henrique from Jake Walman, Mattias Ekholm | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 13:28 | EDM | Andrew Mangiapane from Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid | 1–3 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 16:57 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Brendan Gallagher, Jake Evans | 2–3 | 9% → 24% |
| P2 18:00 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Noah Dobson, Lane Hutson | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P2 18:49 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Nick Suzuki, Alexandre Carrier | 4–3 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 2:10 | MTL | Alex Newhook from Oliver Kapanen, Jayden Struble | 5–3 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 11:19 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 5–4 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 12:17 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPP from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 5–5 | 18% → 51% |
| P3 18:51 | EDM | Vasily Podkolzin from Darnell Nurse, Jake Walman | 5–6 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 18:53 | 2 | +1.43 | +0.25 | +1.16 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 13:32 | 2 | +1.34 | −0.14 | +1.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 16:22 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.01 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 14:48 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:47 | +0.05 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:36 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 12:06 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 10:11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 18:29 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 9:31 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 8:49 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 10:28 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 25:16 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 23:03 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.26 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 13:10 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 21:02 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.16 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:37 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.29 | −0.74 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.10 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 25:11 | −0.59 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 59:33 | −2.76 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Tomasek R | 14:54 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.13 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.08 | +0.75 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 13:50 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.03 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 12:51 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.02 | +0.53 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 13:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.23 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 22:23 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.04 | +0.23 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.12 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 16:44 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaac Howard L | 10:54 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 19:51 | 2 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 19:36 | 2 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 17:21 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 22:35 | 3 | −0.16 | +0.14 | −0.62 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Noah Philp C | 12:25 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Matt Savoie C | 15:43 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 15:12 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 10:55 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 17:56 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.25 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 21:47 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 60:00 | −1.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.