CAR beat COL 5–4 in a shootout. CAR lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 4.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Valeri Nichushkin scored on the power play at 14:09 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 16% to 51%. Frederik Andersen saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:07 |  CAR | Eric Robinson from Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Mike Reilly | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:04 | COL | Valeri Nichushkin unassisted | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 7:17 | CAR | Seth JarvisSH unassisted | 2–1 | 46% → 63% |
| P1 12:41 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from Nikolaj Ehlers, Seth Jarvis | 3–1 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 13:40 | CAR | Logan Stankoven from Jackson Blake, Taylor Hall | 4–1 | 78% → 91% |
| P2 4:46 | COL | Parker Kelly from Sam Malinski, Ross Colton | 4–2 | 6% → 18% |
| P3 4:45 | COL | Martin Necas from Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon | 4–3 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 14:09 | COL | Valeri NichushkinPP from Victor Olofsson, Cale Makar | 4–4 | 16% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jarvis R | 23:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.66 |
| Eric Robinson L | 7:38 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.08 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 16:16 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.07 | +0.73 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 22:35 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.06 | +0.77 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 10:47 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 23:12 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 19:19 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 15:07 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 1:16 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 14:42 | −0.16 | +0.16 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:50 | −0.29 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:52 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Nystrom D | 16:02 | −0.34 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 28:16 | −0.38 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charles Alexis Legault D | 13:11 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 16:14 | −0.44 | +0.04 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 18:30 | 1 | −0.63 | −0.18 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 23:05 | −0.65 | −0.20 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 65:00 | +2.41 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 22:05 | 2 | +0.96 | +0.24 | +1.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 14:38 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.08 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 28:30 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.41 | −0.27 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 25:25 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.30 | −0.35 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Jack Drury C | 14:57 | +0.27 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 21:25 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.24 | +0.56 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Devon Toews D | 22:07 | +0.23 | +0.17 | −0.19 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 21:55 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 4:24 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 13:21 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ilya Solovyov D | 9:13 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 10:04 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 13:42 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 20:20 | −0.24 | +0.14 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gavin Brindley C | 11:17 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:55 | −0.49 | +0.10 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 14:45 | 1 | −0.70 | +0.27 | −0.96 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 19:57 | 1 | −0.82 | −0.16 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Trent Miner G | 51:20 | +1.34 |
| Scott Wedgewood G | 13:40 | −2.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.