SJS beat NYR 6–5 in overtime. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Will Smith scored at 1:38 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Igor Shesterkin allowed 3.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:58 |  SJS | Adam Gaudette from Collin Graf, Michael Misa | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 6:17 | SJS | Macklin CelebriniPP from William Eklund, Dmitry Orlov | 2–0 | 64% → 76% |
| P1 14:19 | NYR | Taylor Raddysh from Sam Carrick, Carson Soucy | 2–1 | 22% → 36% |
| P1 19:51 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Will Smith, William Eklund | 3–1 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 4:04 | NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Alexis Lafrenière, J.T. Miller | 3–2 | 19% → 33% |
| P2 6:47 | NYR | Juuso Parssinen from Conor Sheary | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 12:10 | NYR | Taylor RaddyshSH unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 74% |
| P2 19:54 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Will Smith, Dmitry Orlov | 4–4 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 6:31 | SJS | Will Smith from William Eklund, Macklin Celebrini | 5–4 | 49% → 77% |
| P3 11:50 | NYR | Taylor Raddysh from J.T. Miller, Adam Fox | 5–5 | 18% → 52% |
| OT 1:38 | SJS | Will Smith from Macklin Celebrini, Alex Nedeljkovic | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini C | 22:40 | 3 | 2 | +2.12 | +0.17 | +1.97 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Will Smith C | 19:40 | 2 | 2 | +1.75 | +0.18 | +1.59 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Gaudette R | 11:37 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.06 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 1:44 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 6:22 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 15:19 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:48 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 13:48 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:37 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Misa C | 10:03 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 24:19 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Iorio D | 16:30 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 20:51 | 3 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 23:19 | 2 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 22:36 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 21:22 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 12:45 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 26:50 | −0.54 | −0.16 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 61:14 | −2.21 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Raddysh R | 15:21 | 3 | +2.52 | +0.15 | +2.56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Parssinen C | 6:31 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.08 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 21:55 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.09 | +0.59 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 19:39 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Adam Fox D | 27:34 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Edstrom C | 9:33 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Laba C | 10:28 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Rempe C | 0:19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 18:13 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 26:16 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 11:25 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Braden Schneider D | 16:53 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 23:16 | −0.12 | +0.18 | −0.40 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 11:49 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matthew Robertson D | 16:03 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 23:34 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 18:55 | −0.61 | −0.07 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 19:04 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.03 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 61:38 | −3.62 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.