OTT beat PHI 2–1. Expected goals were close to even (PHI 2.4, OTT 2.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Olle Lycksell scored at 3:05 of the second, moving OTT’s win probability from 53% to 72%. Linus Ullmark saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:29 |  PHI | Tyson Foerster from Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 7:57 | OTT | Michael Amadio from Claude Giroux, Artem Zub | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 3:05 | OTT | Olle Lycksell from Lars Eller, Nick Jensen | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Foerster R | 17:07 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.06 | +0.90 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Zamula D | 11:19 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 16:25 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 23:53 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 25:46 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Grebenkin R | 7:12 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 11:51 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 8:26 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 17:49 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 21:23 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Rodrigo Abols C | 6:06 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 14:21 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 21:13 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 24:11 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 17:43 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 14:08 | −0.55 | −0.05 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 14:50 | −0.60 | −0.05 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 58:12 | +0.97 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Amadio R | 14:23 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.00 | +0.57 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olle Lycksell R | 7:37 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.00 | +0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ridly Greig C | 17:54 | +0.25 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 20:44 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 10:55 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 12:13 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 26:55 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 14:57 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 16:49 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 22:52 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.28 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 11:44 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 9:13 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 17:33 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 22:43 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 10:37 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 18:51 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 18:46 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 17:14 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:00 | +1.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.