BUF beat DET 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (DET 3.5, BUF 3.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jack Quinn scored on the power play at 4:15 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 53% to 79%. Colten Ellis saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:00 |  DET | J.T. Compher from Albert Johansson, Jonatan Berggren | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 11:37 | BUF | Jason Zucker from Jack Quinn, Conor Timmins | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 16:28 | BUF | Tyson Kozak from Jack Quinn, Mattias Samuelsson | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 18:20 | DET | Emmitt Finnie from Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 4:15 | BUF | Jack QuinnPP from Ryan McLeod, Bowen Byram | 2–3 | 53% → 79% |
| P3 8:10 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Josh Doan, Ryan McLeod | 2–4 | 82% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Finnie C | 13:05 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.08 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 14:53 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.06 | +0.47 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 18:09 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 22:50 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 14:59 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 13:41 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R | 11:02 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 15:15 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 13:23 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 13:52 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 17:35 | −0.20 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 14:21 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 15:41 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 17:43 | −0.31 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 26:15 | −0.31 | +0.15 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 16:42 | −0.37 | +0.06 | −0.44 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 19:48 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.06 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:04 | −0.54 | −0.01 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 56:49 | −0.76 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Kozak C | 15:46 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.05 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 11:40 | 1 | 2 | +0.73 | +0.02 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jason Zucker L | 8:28 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.03 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 19:19 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.12 | +0.44 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 20:41 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 19:42 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.16 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 17:57 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Zach Benson L | 21:03 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zach Metsa D | 9:26 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 22:39 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 18:58 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.15 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 10:40 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 21:50 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 9:58 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 13:08 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 19:34 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jiri Kulich C | 15:41 | −0.35 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 19:36 | −0.72 | −0.03 | −0.68 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis G | 59:54 | +1.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.