MIN beat NYR 3–1. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Danila Yurov scored at 8:16 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 48% to 78%. Filip Gustavsson saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:57 |  NYR | Artemi Panarin from Mika Zibanejad, Will Borgen | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:10 | MIN | Jonas Brodin from Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P3 8:16 | MIN | Danila Yurov from Marcus Johansson | 2–1 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 18:24 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovEN from Ryan Hartman | 3–1 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Brodin D | 21:25 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.09 | +0.88 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danila Yurov R | 10:39 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 14:17 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 11:27 | +0.10 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 18:44 | +0.06 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:19 | +0.04 | +0.16 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 15:30 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Jiricek D | 13:42 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 18:23 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Ben Jones C | 11:40 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 22:03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 14:54 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 21:15 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.35 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:38 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:18 | −0.17 | +0.12 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 15:58 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 13:47 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 21:24 | 1 | −0.59 | +0.08 | −0.71 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 60:00 | +1.05 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin L | 21:43 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.02 | +0.60 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 18:10 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 15:54 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 25:34 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 10:20 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 10:02 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Edstrom C | 9:49 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Robertson D | 20:19 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 13:58 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Rempe C | 9:27 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Noah Laba C | 9:11 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 25:29 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 19:08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 10:06 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 18:26 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 18:37 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 22:07 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.13 | −0.52 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 23:41 | −0.55 | −0.20 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 67:41 | +0.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.