DET beat EDM 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (EDM 1.8, DET 2.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Dylan Larkin scored at 8:51 of the second, moving DET’s win probability from 53% to 73%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:51 |  DET | Dylan Larkin from Ben Chiarot, Lucas Raymond | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 11:54 | DET | Emmitt Finnie from Jacob Bernard-Docker, Dylan Larkin | 0–2 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 12:25 | EDM | Noah Philp from Vasily Podkolzin, Brett Kulak | 1–2 | 11% → 26% |
| P2 17:05 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Emmitt Finnie, John Gibson | 1–3 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 7:33 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Brett Kulak, Mattias Ekholm | 2–3 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 18:38 | DET | Emmitt FinnieEN from Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin | 2–4 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 20:33 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.01 | +0.72 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Noah Philp C | 12:26 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.12 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 18:51 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 19:13 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 17:11 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 17:42 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 15:42 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 13:51 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 11:21 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 5:43 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 18:31 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 16:00 | −0.14 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 22:04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Isaac Howard L | 12:00 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 14:47 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:15 | −0.31 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 19:59 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 23:07 | −0.42 | −0.05 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 69:36 | −0.84 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin C | 19:11 | 2 | 2 | +1.73 | −0.00 | +1.73 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Emmitt Finnie C | 19:25 | 2 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.01 | +0.42 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Marco Kasper C | 16:58 | +0.16 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 15:14 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Albert Johansson D | 15:38 | +0.14 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R | 14:11 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 11:44 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 23:01 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 23:45 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 23:03 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 17:20 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 19:37 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 14:56 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 13:59 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 11:48 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 15:12 | −0.22 | +0.13 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 11:22 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 11:36 | −0.42 | +0.11 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 60:00 | −0.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.