SEA beat TOR 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (SEA 2.4, TOR 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Joshua Mahura scored at 3:06 of overtime, moving SEA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Anthony Stolarz allowed 1.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:29 | SEA | Shane WrightPP from Jaden Schwartz, Mason Marchment | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:56 |  TOR | Morgan Rielly from Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 14:19 | SEA | Jani Nyman from Mason Marchment, Shane Wright | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 16:01 | TOR | John Tavares from William Nylander | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P2 17:44 | SEA | Vince Dunn from Eeli Tolvanen, Chandler Stephenson | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 1:21 | TOR | John TavaresPP from William Nylander | 3–3 | 28% → 52% |
| OT 3:06 | SEA | Joshua Mahura from Jordan Eberle, Chandler Stephenson | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jani Nyman R | 13:23 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.04 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 28:17 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.14 | +0.92 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Mahura D | 15:47 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.06 | +0.68 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 15:30 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Wright C | 16:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.24 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Jared McCann L | 17:08 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 20:44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Fleury D | 11:45 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 11:21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 17:17 | −0.07 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 9:41 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 9:56 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:31 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:49 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 15:50 | 2 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 27:43 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 20:14 | −0.36 | −0.13 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:05 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.09 | −0.48 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 63:06 | −0.29 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares C | 17:11 | 2 | +1.79 | +0.18 | +1.58 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:46 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.15 | +0.68 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Easton Cowan R | 14:12 | +0.13 | +0.08 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 20:48 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 16:22 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 15:41 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 21:59 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dakota Joshua C | 13:49 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 17:51 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 20:32 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 13:02 | −0.08 | −0.21 | −0.09 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 11:38 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 15:31 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| William Nylander R | 20:27 | 2 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:18 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 17:37 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 23:40 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.11 | −0.48 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 16:12 | −0.50 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 63:06 | −1.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.