NYI beat OTT 5–4. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Anders Lee scored at 18:57 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 50% to 95%. Linus Ullmark allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:01 | OTT | David PerronPP from Thomas Chabot, Arthur Kaliyev | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 5:32 | OTT | Shane PintoPP from Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 6:50 |  NYI | Emil Heineman from Jonathan Drouin, Scott Mayfield | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 9:57 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Ryan Pulock, Anders Lee | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 16:46 | OTT | Tim Stützle from Nick Jensen, Drake Batherson | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 17:45 | NYI | Anders Lee from Maksim Shabanov, Matthew Schaefer | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P2 18:47 | OTT | Dylan Cozens from Tim Stützle | 3–4 | 53% → 77% |
| P3 6:00 | NYI | Kyle Palmieri from Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech | 4–4 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 18:57 | NYI | Anders Lee from Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 5–4 | 50% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Lee C | 13:25 | 2 | 1 | +1.23 | +0.18 | +1.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Bo Horvat C | 19:57 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.08 | +0.55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:59 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.18 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 13:24 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.18 | +0.57 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 18:48 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 20:12 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 20:32 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 18:47 | +0.03 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Maksim Shabanov R | 12:43 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 18:30 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:49 | −0.14 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 13:11 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 15:10 | −0.17 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 16:37 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.14 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 12:42 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Schaefer D | 22:33 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:22 | −0.30 | −0.20 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 13:22 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.06 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:00 | −0.06 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Perron L | 12:27 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.13 | +0.84 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:08 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.16 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 19:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.03 | +0.40 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Thomas Chabot D | 19:47 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.27 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 16:03 | +0.23 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 16:32 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 18:41 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.21 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Tyler Kleven D | 17:26 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 17:24 | −0.20 | +0.20 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 14:34 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 17:11 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 24:15 | −0.22 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 10:22 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 18:57 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 18:15 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 13:10 | −0.32 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 11:17 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.05 | −0.45 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 12:35 | −0.51 | −0.08 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 68:43 | −1.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.