UTA beat SJS 6–3. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Liam O'Brien scored at 16:09 of the second, moving UTA’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Yaroslav Askarov allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:39 |  UTA | Nick SchmaltzPP from Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller | 0–1 | 57% → 71% |
| P1 13:31 | UTA | Nick Schmaltz from Clayton Keller | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P2 5:23 | SJS | Tyler ToffoliPP from Dmitry Orlov, Will Smith | 1–2 | 14% → 27% |
| P2 7:13 | SJS | Jeff Skinner from Macklin Celebrini, Vincent Desharnais | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 16:09 | UTA | Liam O'Brien from Brandon Tanev, Ian Cole | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 0:54 | UTA | Nick Schmaltz from Clayton Keller | 2–4 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 3:25 | UTA | Michael Carcone from Lawson Crouse | 2–5 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 11:32 | UTA | Clayton Keller from Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton | 2–6 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 16:51 | SJS | Macklin CelebriniPP from Jeff Skinner, Alexander Wennberg | 3–6 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Skinner L | 14:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.08 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 17:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.03 | +0.55 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:42 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.01 | +0.32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sam Dickinson D | 15:14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 9:57 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 13:50 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 13:45 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 9:21 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 14:04 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Smith C | 14:07 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 14:17 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 16:48 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Iorio D | 19:21 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:37 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:34 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 17:52 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 22:32 | −0.30 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:49 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.03 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 60:00 | −1.80 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz C | 18:40 | 3 | 1 | +1.81 | +0.09 | +1.69 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Michael Carcone L | 12:19 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.10 | +0.70 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:09 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 17:42 | 1 | 3 | +0.63 | +0.10 | +0.51 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Barrett Hayton C | 15:54 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| John Marino D | 20:29 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 19:39 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 23:58 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 14:40 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 16:21 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Dmitri Simashev D | 13:29 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 17:15 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 21:17 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 10:14 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 16:18 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.14 | −0.61 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jack McBain C | 16:01 | −0.33 | +0.14 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 17:34 | −0.45 | +0.07 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 69:53 | −0.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.