Tonight: 3 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2025-10-17 · United Center

3 – 2Final/SO

VAN beat CHI 3–2 in a shootout. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 4.6 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Max Sasson scored at 13:42 of the second, moving VAN’s win probability from 25% to 47%. Kevin Lankinen saved 2.6 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
32 – 33
Expected goals
4.6 – 2.6
xG share
VAN 64%
Home-ice start
CHI 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

VAN goalCHI goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

VANCHI

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

VAN
65:00 TOI
GSAx +2.64
+2.64
CHI
65:00 TOI
GSAx +2.59
+2.59
VAN
0 G, 0 A · 24:25 TOI
On-ice +0.72 · Finishing −0.32 · Shootout +1.01
+1.37

Rough nights

CHI
Connor Bedard
0 G, 0 A · 26:48 TOI
On-ice −0.56 · Finishing −0.37 · Penalties −0.39 · Shootout −0.38
−1.72
CHI
0 G, 0 A · 18:49 TOI
On-ice −0.39 · Penalties −0.19 · Shootout −0.49
−1.07
CHI
0 G, 0 A · 21:16 TOI
On-ice −0.38 · Finishing −0.48
−0.85

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalVAN–CHIWin prob.
P1 12:41 CHIRyan DonatoPP
from Andre Burakovsky, Artyom Levshunov
0–154% → 70%
P1 19:14 CHITyler Bertuzzi
from Sam Rinzel
0–271% → 85%
P2 6:49 VANJake DeBruskPP
from Conor Garland, Quinn Hughes
1–213% → 27%
P2 13:42 VANMax Sasson
from Filip Hronek, Linus Karlsson
2–225% → 47%

Every player

Show both lineups

VAN

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffsShootout
Brock Boeser R24:25+1.37+0.72−0.32−0.00−0.01+0.00−0.03+1.01
Quinn Hughes D31:521+0.74+0.85−0.29+0.06−0.07+0.19+0.00+0.00
Max Sasson C10:171+0.66−0.01+0.71−0.01−0.00+0.00−0.03−0.00
Conor Garland R24:151+0.28+0.87−0.45+0.03+0.04+0.19−0.01−0.38
Elias Pettersson C22:45+0.28+0.84−0.33+0.08−0.00+0.00+0.01−0.32
Elias Pettersson D12:39+0.24+0.06+0.00−0.00−0.01+0.19+0.00+0.00
Marcus Pettersson D20:46+0.03+0.04−0.02+0.00+0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Victor Mancini D12:17+0.03+0.05+0.00−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Arshdeep Bains L9:32+0.00+0.00+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.01−0.00
Tyler Myers D19:13−0.02−0.02+0.00−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Linus Karlsson C7:551−0.03+0.02−0.05−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Teddy Blueger C12:57−0.07−0.02+0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00−0.05−0.00
Drew O'Connor L12:50−0.22−0.05−0.16−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.01−0.00
Filip Hronek D23:181−0.24−0.04−0.17+0.00−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jake DeBrusk L22:101−0.31+0.80−0.81−0.01+0.01+0.19−0.01−0.49
Kiefer Sherwood L16:01−0.44−0.08−0.15−0.00−0.01−0.19+0.00−0.00
Filip Chytil C21:45−0.48−0.11−0.36+0.00−0.01+0.00−0.01−0.00
Evander Kane L14:45−0.58−0.18−0.18+0.00−0.03−0.19+0.00−0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Kevin Lankinen G65:00+2.64

CHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffsShootout
Tyler Bertuzzi L19:021+0.35+0.09+0.20+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.05−0.00
Matt Grzelcyk D14:59+0.28+0.10−0.02+0.00+0.01+0.19+0.00+0.00
Andre Burakovsky L16:181+0.03+0.04+0.00−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.00
Ryan Greene C10:15−0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Ryan Donato C14:241−0.01+0.04+0.63+0.01−0.01−0.19+0.00−0.49
Colton Dach C9:48−0.04−0.02−0.21−0.01+0.00+0.19+0.01−0.00
Wyatt Kaiser D19:35−0.06−0.04−0.21+0.00−0.01+0.19+0.00+0.00
Artyom Levshunov D13:471−0.08−0.06−0.01−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Sam Rinzel D20:561−0.09−0.06−0.03−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Louis Crevier D12:46−0.20−0.18+0.00−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Lukas Reichel L10:42−0.31−0.09+0.00−0.01+0.00−0.19−0.01−0.00
Connor Murphy D15:38−0.39−0.37−0.03−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jason Dickinson C19:46−0.41−0.34−0.13−0.02+0.02+0.00+0.06−0.00
Alex Vlasic D25:10−0.55−0.57−0.02+0.03+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Teuvo Teravainen C16:18−0.73−0.18−0.23+0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00−0.32
Ilya Mikheyev R21:16−0.85−0.38−0.48+0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00−0.00
Frank Nazar C18:49−1.07−0.39+0.00−0.00−0.01−0.19+0.01−0.49
Connor Bedard C26:48−1.72−0.56−0.37+0.02−0.04−0.39−0.01−0.38
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Spencer Knight G65:00+2.59

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.