PIT beat LAK 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (PIT 3.0, LAK 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Filip Hallander scored short-handed at 6:50 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 47% to 76%. Arturs Silovs saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:24 |  LAK | Warren Foegele from Trevor Moore, Cody Ceci | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:04 | LAK | Kevin Fiala from Quinton Byfield, Joel Armia | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P2 6:37 | PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Bryan Rust, Erik Karlsson | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 7:18 | PIT | Connor Dewar from Noel Acciari, Ryan Shea | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 6:50 | PIT | Filip HallanderSH from Rickard Rakell, Parker Wotherspoon | 3–2 | 47% → 76% |
| P3 19:29 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyEN from Parker Wotherspoon, Erik Karlsson | 4–2 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Hallander C | 11:01 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.20 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 12:09 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.12 | +0.71 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:01 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.13 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 19:52 | 2 | +0.27 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Shea D | 21:25 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Caleb Jones D | 17:36 | +0.08 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 22:00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 18:45 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Harrison Brunicke D | 17:50 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 12:38 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 13:13 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 13:56 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:37 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 12:18 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Blake Lizotte C | 15:15 | −0.27 | +0.17 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 15:50 | −0.44 | −0.11 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 17:15 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.39 | −0.01 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 21:11 | 1 | −1.02 | −0.09 | −0.91 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs G | 60:00 | +1.41 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Fiala L | 17:37 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.05 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 15:22 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 19:53 | +0.15 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 19:11 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 18:38 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 21:50 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 15:45 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Turcotte C | 14:16 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jeff Malott L | 8:08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 18:42 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Helenius C | 8:13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 17:38 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 16:43 | −0.22 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 17:11 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 17:39 | −0.43 | −0.38 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 14:30 | −0.60 | −0.15 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 18:56 | −0.78 | +0.05 | −0.63 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 18:06 | 1 | −0.81 | +0.09 | −0.94 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 68:20 | −0.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.