CHI beat STL 8–3. CHI also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Lukas Reichel scored at 2:49 of the second, moving CHI’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Joel Hofer allowed 4.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:02 | CHI | Ilya Mikheyev unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:29 |  STL | Jake Neighbours from Colton Parayko, Pavel Buchnevich | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 5:23 | CHI | Lukas Reichel from Matt Grzelcyk | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:54 | STL | Dylan Holloway from Jordan Kyrou | 2–2 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 2:49 | CHI | Lukas Reichel from Alex Vlasic, Connor Bedard | 3–2 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 4:32 | CHI | Frank Nazar from Tyler Bertuzzi, Wyatt Kaiser | 4–2 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 8:52 | CHI | Jason Dickinson from Alex Vlasic | 5–2 | 84% → 95% |
| P3 1:17 | CHI | Ryan Donato from Louis Crevier, Ilya Mikheyev | 6–2 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 5:03 | CHI | Tyler BertuzziPP from Teuvo Teravainen, Connor Bedard | 7–2 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 11:28 | STL | Tyler Tucker from Jake Neighbours | 7–3 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 12:21 | CHI | Ryan Greene from Lukas Reichel, Connor Bedard | 8–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Reichel L | 13:11 | 2 | 1 | +1.35 | +0.01 | +1.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jason Dickinson C | 16:39 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.08 | +0.90 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Frank Nazar C | 15:20 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.07 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 18:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.07 | +0.84 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Donato C | 18:01 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.09 | +0.47 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Greene C | 16:29 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.02 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 16:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.06 | +0.58 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Connor Murphy D | 13:08 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 14:33 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Vlasic D | 22:07 | 2 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 19:46 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Dach C | 15:13 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 14:04 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artyom Levshunov D | 16:47 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 18:57 | 3 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Rinzel D | 18:29 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Louis Crevier D | 13:45 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 14:56 | −0.45 | −0.09 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arvid Soderblom G | 60:00 | −0.68 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Tucker D | 17:53 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.00 | +0.92 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 17:38 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.06 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 13:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.10 | +0.76 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 14:25 | +0.15 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 14:30 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:54 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 14:05 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 14:51 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:36 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Mailloux D | 15:49 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:27 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 18:42 | −0.16 | +0.12 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 16:00 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 16:24 | −0.23 | +0.05 | −0.14 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 12:36 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 21:37 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pius Suter C | 14:43 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 21:13 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 12:15 | −0.09 |
| Joel Hofer G | 47:45 | −4.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.