MTL beat SEA 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (SEA 2.1, MTL 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Cole Caufield scored at 3:25 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Joey Daccord allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:37 |  MTL | Alex Newhook from Ivan Demidov, Alexandre Carrier | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 3:33 | SEA | Jaden SchwartzPP from Shane Wright, Vince Dunn | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 7:12 | MTL | Cole Caufield unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 17:52 | SEA | Jani Nyman from Tye Kartye, Frederick Gaudreau | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 1:12 | MTL | Kirby Dach from Noah Dobson, Mike Matheson | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 4:48 | SEA | Jamie Oleksiak from Jared McCann, Joshua Mahura | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 7:56 | SEA | Jared McCann from Brandon Montour, Ryan Lindgren | 4–3 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 17:19 | MTL | Ivan Demidov from Patrik Laine, Brendan Gallagher | 4–4 | 10% → 51% |
| OT 3:25 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 17:11 | 1 | +1.21 | −0.02 | +0.85 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Jani Nyman R | 9:31 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jared McCann L | 15:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.06 | +0.56 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 19:15 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.17 | +0.67 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 14:35 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Tye Kartye L | 13:47 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 16:17 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 18:39 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Winterton C | 13:45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 13:15 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 23:20 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Mahura D | 17:38 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:25 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 21:11 | −0.19 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 18:18 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 11:58 | −0.26 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 21:26 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 20:54 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.16 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 63:25 | −2.72 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield R | 17:43 | 2 | +1.72 | +0.13 | +1.58 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 16:41 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.09 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 16:14 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.04 | +0.66 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 14:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.05 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 15:16 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 17:14 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 23:08 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 18:48 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 22:04 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 11:26 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 10:00 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 23:45 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 14:12 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 10:43 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 14:09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 25:19 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 17:53 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:45 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 63:13 | −1.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.