DET beat TOR 3–2. DET lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mason Appleton scored at 19:15 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 49% to 96%. Cam Talbot saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:55 |  DET | Dylan LarkinPP from Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond | 1–0 | 52% → 65% |
| P3 4:25 | DET | James van Riemsdyk from Andrew Copp | 2–0 | 75% → 92% |
| P3 7:29 |  TOR | Matthew Knies from Bobby McMann | 2–1 | 6% → 22% |
| P3 13:42 | TOR | Calle Jarnkrok from Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies | 2–2 | 15% → 51% |
| P3 19:15 | DET | Mason Appleton from Ben Chiarot, Emmitt Finnie | 3–2 | 49% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James van Riemsdyk L | 10:09 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 13:36 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.05 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 7:58 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 11:03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R | 13:42 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 15:54 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 20:17 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 12:12 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 26:22 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 16:02 | −0.16 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 20:31 | −0.17 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.07 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 17:47 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 21:59 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 22:12 | −0.25 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 12:17 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:35 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 14:58 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 18:39 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.22 | +0.29 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.39 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 59:47 | +1.88 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Knies L | 22:31 | 1 | 1 | +1.23 | +0.36 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 12:04 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.12 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Easton Cowan R | 14:05 | +0.11 | +0.24 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 12:50 | +0.10 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| John Tavares C | 16:30 | +0.09 | +0.13 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 17:12 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 21:41 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 18:46 | −0.01 | +0.24 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 19:42 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 19:00 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 12:22 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 8:40 | −0.13 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 9:18 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 12:12 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:21 | −0.26 | +0.09 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 17:25 | −0.30 | +0.29 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 13:30 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.11 | −0.51 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 22:34 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.35 | −1.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 59:04 | −1.42 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.