ANA beat SJS 7–6 in overtime. ANA also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Leo Carlsson scored at 0:46 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Petr Mrazek allowed 3.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:40 |  SJS | Tyler ToffoliPP from Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:12 | SJS | Ryan Reaves from Adam Gaudette, Nick Leddy | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 11:53 |  ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Mason McTavish, Radko Gudas | 1–2 | 16% → 30% |
| P1 15:14 | ANA | Beckett SenneckePP from Mason McTavish, Olen Zellweger | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 5:21 | SJS | Mario Ferraro from Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 6:19 | ANA | Alex Killorn from Mikael Granlund | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 10:34 | SJS | John KlingbergPP from Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith | 3–4 | 58% → 75% |
| P2 17:14 | SJS | Adam GaudettePP from Alexander Wennberg, Dmitry Orlov | 3–5 | 77% → 91% |
| P2 19:29 | ANA | Chris KreiderPP from Leo Carlsson, Troy Terry | 4–5 | 9% → 23% |
| P3 5:34 | SJS | Jeff Skinner from Ty Dellandrea, Dmitry Orlov | 4–6 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 10:29 | ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Mason McTavish, Beckett Sennecke | 5–6 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 19:09 | ANA | Chris KreiderPP from Leo Carlsson, Troy Terry | 6–6 | 4% → 50% |
| OT 0:46 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Mikael Granlund | 7–6 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier L | 19:30 | 2 | +1.71 | +0.39 | +1.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 17:08 | 2 | +1.44 | +0.24 | +1.22 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 18:24 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.15 | +0.42 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 19:42 | 1 | 2 | +0.70 | +0.11 | +0.56 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 19:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.37 | +0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jacob Trouba D | 18:15 | +0.44 | +0.43 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 19:56 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.46 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 21:14 | 2 | +0.31 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 27:32 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 6:00 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 20:10 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Johnston L | 5:39 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 12:02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 18:01 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.22 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Drew Helleson D | 15:14 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 11:49 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 7:41 | −0.32 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 20:57 | 3 | −0.58 | +0.38 | −0.77 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 59:49 | −3.50 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Skinner L | 10:10 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.11 | +0.44 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 6:08 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.02 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 8:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.09 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:21 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.12 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 16:35 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.06 | |
| John Klingberg D | 19:11 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.38 | +0.82 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:08 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.31 | +0.51 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Dickinson D | 12:02 | +0.12 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 14:01 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 13:47 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 21:21 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 20:23 | 3 | −0.30 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:39 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:58 | 2 | −0.38 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 19:55 | −0.43 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 18:20 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.49 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Eklund L | 17:32 | −0.54 | −0.33 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 18:48 | 3 | −0.76 | −0.35 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 60:37 | −2.57 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.