EDM beat VAN 3–1. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 4.9 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Noah Philp scored at 12:21 of the second, moving EDM’s win probability from 53% to 74%. Thatcher Demko saved 2.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 12:21 | EDM | Noah Philp from Kasperi Kapanen, Vasily Podkolzin | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 19:09 | EDM | Andrew Mangiapane unassisted | 0–2 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 0:47 |  VAN | Brock Boeser from Quinn Hughes, Jake DeBrusk | 1–2 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 18:47 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlEN from Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid | 1–3 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Boeser R | 18:38 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.16 | +0.66 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Aatu Räty C | 11:01 | +0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.07 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 25:58 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arshdeep Bains L | 10:00 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 18:49 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 13:46 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Braeden Cootes C | 9:53 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 9:38 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 27:19 | −0.23 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson D | 11:25 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 16:38 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.12 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 20:27 | −0.31 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 12:13 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 17:17 | −0.49 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 12:35 | −0.49 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 16:42 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.18 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 20:11 | −0.51 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 17:49 | −0.71 | −0.23 | −0.51 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 57:41 | +2.62 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 11:19 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.13 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Philp C | 10:48 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.07 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 24:11 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.45 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 24:29 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.45 | −0.41 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.09 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 18:27 | +0.36 | +0.32 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 25:43 | +0.30 | +0.48 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:02 | +0.11 | +0.37 | −0.28 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 13:22 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alec Regula D | 16:44 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 18:35 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 18:38 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 13:20 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 11:00 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isaac Howard L | 10:17 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 13:28 | −0.40 | −0.07 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| David Tomasek R | 15:28 | −0.47 | +0.18 | −0.83 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 14:51 | −0.53 | +0.14 | −0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 13:18 | −0.56 | +0.05 | −0.60 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 60:00 | +0.62 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.