UTA beat NSH 3–2 in overtime. UTA lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dylan Guenther scored at 2:56 of overtime, moving UTA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Karel Vejmelka saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:21 | UTA | Logan Cooley from Dylan Guenther, JJ Peterka | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 7:23 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Brady Martin | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 13:13 | NSH | Erik Haula from Luke Evangelista, Jonathan Marchessault | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 11:37 | UTA | Jack McBain from Nick Schmaltz, Sean Durzi | 2–2 | 16% → 48% |
| OT 2:56 | UTA | Dylan Guenther unassisted | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Guenther R | 23:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.17 | +0.37 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 |
| Logan Cooley C | 22:42 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.13 | +0.60 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jack McBain C | 17:08 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.04 | +0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Agozzino L | 5:21 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 9:42 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 15:08 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 9:28 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 19:11 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 28:10 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 11:13 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:41 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 16:31 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 16:15 | −0.24 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Simashev D | 8:31 | −0.27 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 23:05 | −0.37 | −0.25 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 16:58 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 17:28 | −0.55 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:04 | 1 | −0.95 | −0.13 | −0.58 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 62:16 | +1.16 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi D | 27:43 | +0.52 | +0.29 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 20:51 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.12 | +0.34 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 15:25 | +0.39 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 14:53 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.05 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Spencer Stastney D | 13:47 | +0.16 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 20:25 | +0.13 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 22:54 | +0.13 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:21 | +0.08 | +0.16 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 14:15 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Brady Martin C | 10:40 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Wilsby D | 17:00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:59 | −0.03 | +0.23 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 12:44 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 13:34 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 13:28 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 10:47 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:50 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.24 | −0.54 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 13:28 | −0.64 | −0.06 | −0.53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 62:40 | −0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.