STL beat CGY 4–2. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jake Neighbours scored at 11:07 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 81%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:49 |  CGY | Matt CoronatoPP from Joel Farabee, Nazem Kadri | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 12:41 |  STL | Jake Neighbours from Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 14:25 | STL | Robert ThomasPP from Jimmy Snuggerud, Justin Faulk | 2–1 | 48% → 70% |
| P2 14:57 | CGY | Matt Coronato from Kevin Bahl | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 11:07 | STL | Jake Neighbours from Colton Parayko, Cam Fowler | 3–2 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 13:33 | STL | Pius Suter from Tyler Tucker, Nathan Walker | 4–2 | 84% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Neighbours L | 14:44 | 2 | +1.31 | −0.05 | +1.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 21:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.10 | +0.81 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:52 | +0.35 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.08 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 18:44 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.06 | +0.38 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 24:58 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Tucker D | 8:19 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 25:02 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 9:59 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 6:42 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 12:52 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Logan Mailloux D | 8:18 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:00 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 23:03 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 10:30 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 23:58 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:57 | −0.24 | +0.10 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 5:29 | −0.30 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 20:45 | −0.31 | +0.12 | −0.45 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 59:58 | +0.99 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Coronato R | 18:27 | 2 | +1.48 | +0.02 | +1.51 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Ryan Lomberg L | 6:02 | +0.13 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 10:23 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 17:48 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 12:22 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matvei Gridin R | 13:38 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 20:07 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 18:21 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zayne Parekh D | 17:21 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:51 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 15:43 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 10:24 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 14:39 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 16:08 | −0.24 | −0.15 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 25:25 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Honzek L | 13:02 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 21:16 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.10 | −0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 21:27 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.12 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 56:45 | −0.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.