VAN beat CGY 5–1. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kiefer Sherwood scored at 14:53 of the first, moving VAN’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Dustin Wolf allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:53 | VAN | Kiefer Sherwood from Drew O'Connor | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P3 2:54 | VAN | Filip Chytil unassisted | 0–2 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 8:53 | VAN | Filip Chytil from Arshdeep Bains | 0–3 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 11:43 | VAN | Jonathan Lekkerimäki from Evander Kane, Conor Garland | 0–4 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 13:06 |  CGY | Morgan Frost from Yegor Sharangovich, Joel Farabee | 1–4 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 17:06 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Elias Pettersson, Jake DeBrusk | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Frost C | 16:32 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.78 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Connor Zary C | 13:29 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 25:26 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:31 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 20:10 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 17:53 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 16:04 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Kirkland C | 9:23 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 11:28 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 11:14 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:06 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Matvei Gridin R | 13:48 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 13:08 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:42 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 15:19 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 16:37 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 16:31 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 16:11 | −0.47 | +0.06 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 59:28 | −2.57 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 13:42 | 1 | +1.14 | −0.09 | +0.85 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 16:25 | 2 | +0.88 | −0.03 | +1.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 17:12 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.01 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 14:13 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.05 | +0.80 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 15:39 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 15:17 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arshdeep Bains L | 14:24 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 18:03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 13:32 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Conor Garland R | 18:22 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 19:15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braeden Cootes C | 11:14 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 21:52 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 11:14 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 15:20 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Elias Pettersson D | 13:12 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 25:07 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 16:40 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.05 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 59:17 | +0.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.