CAR beat NJD 6–3. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Seth Jarvis scored at 17:17 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 51% to 92%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:06 | CAR | Taylor Hall from Shayne Gostisbehere, Alexander Nikishin | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 8:15 |  NJD | Dougie Hamilton from Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 9:23 | CAR | K'Andre Miller from William Carrier, Jordan Martinook | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 13:54 | NJD | Cody Glass from Luke Hughes | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 10:21 | CAR | K'Andre MillerPP from Sebastian Aho, Jackson Blake | 2–3 | 53% → 83% |
| P3 11:38 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Brett Pesce, Luke Hughes | 3–3 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 17:17 | CAR | Seth Jarvis from Sebastian Aho, Shayne Gostisbehere | 3–4 | 51% → 92% |
| P3 19:05 | CAR | Seth JarvisEN unassisted | 3–5 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:47 | CAR | Eric Robinson from Taylor Hall, Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dougie Hamilton D | 20:44 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.08 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.09 | +0.79 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cody Glass C | 11:53 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.10 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 21:42 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 16:50 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 18:35 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 19:00 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 10:22 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 18:42 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 14:10 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 12:16 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arseny Gritsyuk R | 9:52 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 9:32 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 17:35 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 21:54 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 11:54 | −0.52 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 20:46 | 2 | −0.57 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 19:37 | −0.60 | −0.11 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 59:05 | −2.00 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K'Andre Miller D | 19:09 | 2 | +1.62 | −0.00 | +1.66 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 21:12 | 2 | +1.01 | +0.21 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 10:08 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.14 | +0.79 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 12:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.03 | +0.63 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 20:16 | 2 | +0.30 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 15:34 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:03 | +0.10 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 20:16 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 9:46 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 19:25 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 21:14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 11:07 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 19:35 | −0.16 | +0.12 | −0.30 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 13:35 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:39 | 2 | −0.24 | +0.12 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:02 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.38 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 15:40 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:12 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 59:59 | −1.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.